Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 22.583949 24.768215 27.216972 30.197408 33.771910 37.981851 43.411260
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.318629 22.123348 25.520568 30.049605 36.118311 44.287663 56.772688
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.246197 20.379058 24.399486 30.162052 38.654798 51.626174 75.431691
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.625809 18.889930 23.262744 29.895173 40.475652 58.599456 98.842630
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.367751 17.677020 22.262429 29.545783 41.984006 65.691730 130.293405
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.387342 16.709879 21.444719 29.269523 43.477316 73.513042 176.764443
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.600507 15.921619 20.770147 29.068832 45.014104 82.373517 251.815709
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.819652 15.064850 19.884968 28.348999 45.322972 88.537452 346.174603
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.566389 14.952813 20.128553 29.621399 50.159057 111.548918 896.430168
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 11.040277 14.383987 19.575915 29.336515 51.423720 124.712855 2455.992113
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.644611 13.982962 19.254754 29.435067 53.665290 144.996753 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.319577 13.666233 19.040458 29.704654 56.470245 173.430201 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.995730 13.335119 18.780607 29.863979 59.149209 209.303878 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.621470 12.901099 18.306391 29.506544 60.228058 239.448477 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.333188 12.588704 18.021611 29.520851 62.539877 292.309887 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.025450 12.227263 17.620663 29.221847 63.745470 344.350524 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.734521 11.878469 17.217769 28.867350 64.674473 405.355063 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.475666 11.570099 16.868026 28.593646 65.850995 491.506569 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 8.244806 11.297426 16.566269 28.397140 67.303574 620.820778 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.969257 10.938093 16.080801 27.703351 66.528260 684.934398 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.934476 10.982631 16.360253 28.925875 74.566342 1760.013559 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.733942 10.735096 16.062273 28.651809 75.753211 2901.712120 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.584541 10.569174 15.912838 28.746369 78.880731 11085.738331 NaN